Republic of Colombia — narrative telemetry
PRESIDENTIAL_TWO_ROUND · rolling 15-day window
15-Day Leverage Telemetry
Click a day to read its agenda
Top 12 Political Agenda
| # | Agenda topic | Conversation share | Velocity | Ruling | Opposition | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Fiscal Deficit and Austerity Measures ECONOMIC | 11% | HIGH | -3 | +3 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment BBVA Research reports that Colombia's fiscal deficit is projected to widen, marking it as the economy's main macroeconomic challenge, framing the new government's push for austerity and spending cuts. The de la Espriella administration's 2027 budget proposal, which includes significant cuts to social and peace-related programs, is facing intense opposition in Congress from the Pacto Histórico, which argues the measures harm the poor. BBVA Research?El Tiempo?NACLA? | ||||||
| 02 | Urban and Rural Insecurity SECURITY | 10% | HIGH | -2 | +3 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment TeleSUR reports that the government has militarized the city of Santa Marta following the neutralization of a paramilitary leader, a move that has drawn criticism and left the population confined amid fears of armed intimidation. This event is part of a broader pattern of deteriorating security, with human rights groups reporting a spike in killings of social activists and former FARC combatants since President de la Espriella took office. TeleSUR?Justice for Colombia?U.S. Embassy in Colombia? | ||||||
| 03 | Healthcare System Reform SOCIAL | 9% | MED | -2 | +2 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment According to Finance Colombia, the previous Petro administration attempted to reform the healthcare system by limiting the role of private insurers (EPS), a policy the new de la Espriella government opposes, creating a major fault line in social policy. The current debate pits the opposition's vision of a state-run system against the government's preference for a market-based model, with both sides claiming their approach will solve issues of debt and access to care. Finance Colombia?Noticias RCN?Speyside Group? | ||||||
| 04 | Corruption and Institutional Integrity GOVERNANCE | 8% | HIGH | +2 | -4 | Government |
Strategic assessment The Washington Stand reports that President de la Espriella has called for an elite task force to investigate corruption cases from the previous Petro administration, formally presenting a 'white paper' of complaints to the Prosecutor General. This positions the new government on the offensive against the opposition Pacto Histórico, which is now forced to defend the legacy of the former president amid allegations of misallocated funds and rigged contracts. The Washington Stand?Colombia Reports?WION? | ||||||
| 05 | Cost of Living and Inflation ECONOMIC | 8% | MED | -3 | +3 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment ColombiaOne.com reports that the annual inflation rate in Colombia rose to 6.29% in September 2026, the highest since July 2024, pushing further above the central bank's target. The rising cost of food, transport, and education puts direct pressure on the new de la Espriella government, providing the opposition with a potent line of attack on the economic well-being of households. ColombiaOne.com?TradingView?MarketScreener? | ||||||
| 06 | Negotiations with Armed Groups SECURITY | 7% | MED | -2 | +1 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment According to NACLA, President de la Espriella is trying to dismantle the infrastructure of the 2016 peace deal by cutting funding for transitional justice institutions, a sharp reversal from the previous government's 'Total Peace' policy. This hardline stance, which includes formally ending negotiations, is criticized by the opposition and peace advocates as a return to all-out war, while the government frames it as a necessary response to ongoing violence. The GuardianneutralNACLA?Human Rights Watch? | ||||||
| 07 | Energy Transition Policy PUBLIC_GOODS | 5% | LOW | +1 | -1 | Government |
Strategic assessment The Los Angeles Times reports that President de la Espriella has pledged to revive the country's oil and gas sector, including authorizing fracking and expanding exploration, a significant policy shift from the previous administration's focus on a faster transition away from fossil fuels. This move is framed by the government as essential for energy security and economic growth, while the opposition criticizes it as a reversal of environmental commitments. Los Angeles Times?The Bogotá Post? | ||||||
| 08 | Executive-Legislative Relations GOVERNANCE | 4% | MED | -2 | +2 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment El País reports that the opposition Pacto Histórico, despite being the largest bloc in Congress, is struggling to define a coherent strategy against the new de la Espriella government. The government, whose party holds few seats, must negotiate with a fragmented Congress to pass its agenda, including the contentious budget, leading to high political tension and legislative gridlock. El País?The City Paper Bogotá?Agora-parl.org? | ||||||
| 09 | Gender Equality and Women's Rights SOCIAL | 4% | MED | -3 | +3 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment The International Campaign for Women's Right to Safe Abortion reports that President de la Espriella's calls to review the country's abortion laws, which he termed a 'monstrosity', have sparked protests. This positions the government against feminist and progressive movements, energizing the opposition around a key social issue and highlighting the sharp ideological divide between the new administration and its predecessor. International Campaign for Women's Right to Safe Abortion?New Age? | ||||||
| 10 | Relations with the United States GOVERNANCE | 3% | LOW | +2 | -2 | Government |
Strategic assessment The Associated Press reports on a bilateral agreement signing ceremony between President de la Espriella and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in early September, signaling a return to close security ties after tensions under the previous government. The opposition, led by former President Petro, frames this alignment as a loss of sovereignty, accusing the new government of being a 'servant' to Washington. Associated PressneutralThe City Paper Bogotá?DW News? | ||||||
| 11 | Pension System Reform SOCIAL | 3% | LOW | -1 | +1 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment La FM reports that the Council of State has stripped former Senate President Iván Name of his political rights for influence trafficking during the debate on the Petro government's pension reform. This judicial decision revives the contentious debate over pension reform, a key policy of the previous administration that the current government is likely to oppose or reverse, keeping it on the long-term agenda. La FM?Economics Observatory? | ||||||
| 12 | Sports and Recreation Policy SOCIAL | 3% | LOW | -1 | +1 | Opposition |
Strategic assessment The Guardian reports that President de la Espriella announced a crackdown on immigrants in late August, ordering authorities to detain and deport those in the country irregularly, echoing the rhetoric of his U.S. ally Donald Trump. This policy shift, framed as 'Colombians first', is criticized by human rights activists and the opposition as an end to a more welcoming migration policy that had endured for over a decade. The Guardianneutral | ||||||
Top 8 Daily Spike Issues
Short-life stories — part of the same 100% conversation as the Top 12- 01
Security forces militarize Santa Marta after armed group imposes 'paro armado'
Helps the oppositionGOV -1 · OPP +2HIGH escalation6% share · Day 3TeleSUR reports the heavy-handed security response highlights the new government's hardline strategy but also generates fear and criticism, paralyzing a major tourist city and escalating tensions between the state and illegal armed groups.
TeleSUR · U.S. Embassy in Colombia · La FM
- 02
Council of State strips former Senate President Iván Name of political rights for influence trafficking
Helps the governmentGOV +3 · OPP -4MED escalation5% share · Day 1According to La FM, this high-profile ruling against a key figure from the previous legislative period for corruption related to the pension reform debate damages the legacy of the Petro government's allies and provides ammunition for the new administration's anti-corruption narrative.
La FM
- 03
Government orders reactivation of hydrocarbon exploration
Helps the governmentGOV +2 · OPP -1HIGH escalation4% share · Day 1La FM reports the government has formally ordered the reactivation of oil and gas exploration, cementing a major policy reversal from the previous administration and setting the stage for a prolonged conflict with environmental groups and the political opposition.
La FM · Los Angeles Times
- 04
Two police officers assassinated in Norte de Santander
Helps the oppositionGOV -2 · OPP +1MED escalation3% share · Day 2La FM reports the Defense Minister has ordered a full-scale operation to capture those responsible, highlighting the persistent and lethal threat armed groups pose to state forces and the challenges facing the government's security policy in volatile regions.
La FM · U.S. Embassy in Colombia
- 05
Extradition of alias 'Araña' to the United States confirmed
Helps the governmentGOV +2 · OPP 0LOW escalation2% share · Day 1Per La FM, the extradition of a key criminal figure signals the de la Espriella government's commitment to close cooperation with the U.S. on security and counter-narcotics, reinforcing its foreign policy alignment and tough-on-crime posture.
La FM
- 06
Seismic activity continues in Chaparral, Tolima
NeutralGOV 0 · OPP 0LOW escalation2% share · Day 4La FM reports on the ongoing seismic situation, keeping disaster preparedness on the public agenda and testing the new government's disaster response coordination capabilities.
La FM
- 07
Counterflow traffic measures implemented on Bogotá's Carrera Séptima
NeutralGOV 0 · OPP 0LOW escalation2% share · Day 1La FM's report on traffic management in the capital is a recurring quality-of-life issue that directly affects millions of citizens and reflects on the effectiveness of local and national authorities in managing urban problems.
La FM
- 08
National football team plays first match since World Cup
NeutralGOV 0 · OPP 0LOW escalation1% share · Day 1La FM notes the match provides a moment of national unity and distraction from the highly polarized political environment, serving as a cultural touchstone for the public.
La FM
Agenda pushed by each side
Grounded from that day's reportingGovernment
Government pursues corruption of previous administration
President de la Espriella's government has formalized its anti-corruption offensive against the former Petro administration by delivering a 'white paper' with over 80 complaints to the Prosecutor General.
Issue #04Hardline security policy implemented in Santa Marta
Following an 'armed blockade' by an illegal group, the Ministry of Defense ordered the militarization of Santa Marta to restore order and state control, demonstrating the government's tough-on-crime stance.
Issue #02Fiscal responsibility is key to economic recovery
The Finance Ministry is defending its proposed 2027 budget in Congress, arguing that austerity measures and spending cuts are necessary to control the widening fiscal deficit and ensure long-term economic stability.
Issue #01Energy sovereignty to be restored through oil and gas revival
President de la Espriella reiterated his commitment to expanding oil and gas exploration, including fracking, as a matter of national sovereignty and a pillar of the country's energy security.
Issue #07
Opposition
Government's austerity budget is an attack on the poor and on peace
Pacto Histórico senators are leading the charge in Congress against the 2027 budget, claiming that cuts to social programs and peace institutions are a betrayal of the Colombian people.
Issue #01Militarization is not the answer to insecurity
Opposition leaders and human rights groups criticized the government's decision to militarize Santa Marta, arguing it fails to address the root causes of violence and puts civilians at risk.
Issue #02Government's anti-corruption push is a political witch hunt
Allies of former President Petro have dismissed the government's 'white paper' on corruption as a political maneuver designed to persecute the opposition and distract from the new administration's own challenges.
Issue #04Women's rights are under threat from new government
Following protests against the President's anti-abortion rhetoric, opposition figures have amplified calls to defend reproductive rights, framing it as a key battle against the government's conservative social agenda.
Issue #09