Democratic Republic of the Congo — narrative telemetry

PRESIDENTIAL_FPTP · rolling 15-day window

15-Day Leverage Telemetry

Click a day to read its agenda

Daily NIL 7D-MA

Top 12 Political Agenda

These 12 themes and the 8 daily spikes together make up 100% of the conversation

#	Agenda topic	Conversation share	Velocity	Ruling	Opposition	Favours
01	Eastern Conflict and M23 Insurgency SECURITY	20%	HIGH	-5	+4	Opposition
	Strategic assessment Reuters reports that fighting continues between the Congolese army (FARDC), supported by Wazalendo militias and SADC forces, and the M23 rebel group in North Kivu province, with ongoing civilian casualties and territorial disputes, representing a critical failure for the government's primary security objective. ReutersneutralAFPneutralRFI?
02	Humanitarian Crisis and Internal Displacement SOCIAL	16%	HIGH	-4	+3	Opposition
	Strategic assessment According to the Associated Press, UN agencies are warning of a catastrophic humanitarian situation in the eastern DRC, with the number of internally displaced persons now exceeding 7 million, placing immense pressure on the government and aid organizations to provide basic necessities. Associated PressneutralThe GuardianneutralUN OCHA?
03	Cost of Living and Currency Depreciation ECONOMIC	9%	MED	-4	+3	Opposition
	Strategic assessment Radio Okapi reports that the continued depreciation of the Congolese Franc against the US dollar is driving up the cost of essential goods in major cities like Kinshasa, fueling public discontent with the government's economic management. BloombergneutralRadio Okapi?Jeune Afrique?
04	Regional Diplomatic Tensions GOVERNANCE	8%	MED	-2	+1	Opposition
	Strategic assessment France 24 reports that diplomatic relations between the DRC and Rwanda remain at a low point, with Kinshasa continuing to accuse Kigali of actively supporting the M23 insurgency, a narrative the government uses to foster national unity but which also highlights its foreign policy challenges. Al JazeeraneutralFrance 24?The EastAfrican?
05	Mining Sector Governance and Revenue ECONOMIC	5%	LOW	-2	+2	Opposition
	Strategic assessment Jeune Afrique reports on ongoing scrutiny of mining contracts, particularly those involving cobalt and copper, with civil society organizations continuing to call for greater transparency and a larger share of revenue for national development, putting the government's resource management under a microscope. ReutersneutralJeune Afrique?Africa Confidential?
06	Status of MONUSCO SECURITY	4%	MED	-2	+1	Opposition
	Strategic assessment RFI reports that the phased withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO, is proceeding, raising significant concerns about a potential security vacuum in areas the FARDC is not yet able to fully control, placing the burden of proof squarely on the government. AFPneutralRFI?Devex?
07	Institutional Corruption GOVERNANCE	4%	LOW	-3	+2	Opposition
	Strategic assessment Actualite.cd reports that despite President Tshisekedi's anti-corruption rhetoric, high-profile cases often stall and public perception of graft within state institutions remains high, undermining the government's governance reform agenda. Actualite.cd?Congo Research Group?Transparency International?
08	Public Infrastructure Deficits PUBLIC_GOODS	3%	LOW	-3	+2	Opposition
	Strategic assessment As reported by local media outlet Desk Eco, chronic power outages and the poor state of roads in Kinshasa and other urban centers remain a major source of public frustration, highlighting the government's long-term failure to deliver on basic services. Desk Eco?Radio Okapi?Actualite.cd?
09	Food Insecurity SOCIAL	3%	MED	-3	+2	Opposition
	Strategic assessment The World Food Programme states in a recent bulletin, covered by international media, that conflict and displacement have severely disrupted agriculture in the east, pushing millions into acute food insecurity and exposing the government's inability to ensure food supply chains. ReutersneutralWorld Food Programme?The New Humanitarian?
10	Political Opposition Cohesion GOVERNANCE	3%	LOW	+1	-2	Government
	Strategic assessment Jeune Afrique reports that the main opposition leaders, including Moïse Katumbi and Martin Fayulu, continue to operate largely independently, with no unified front emerging to challenge President Tshisekedi's administration, which benefits the ruling coalition. Jeune Afrique?RFI?
11	Public Health System Strain PUBLIC_GOODS	2%	LOW	-2	+1	Opposition
	Strategic assessment AFP and WHO report that the World Health Organization continues to report, via outlets like Agence France-Presse, on persistent outbreaks of diseases such as measles and cholera, particularly in displacement camps, highlighting the chronic underfunding and fragility of the national public health system. AFPneutralWHO?MSF?
12	Wazalendo Militia Activities SECURITY	2%	MED	-2	+1	Opposition
	Strategic assessment Human Rights Watch reports, covered by international press, raise concerns about abuses committed by some government-aligned Wazalendo militia groups, creating a complex situation for the government which relies on them as a force multiplier against M23 but faces criticism over their lack of discipline and accountability. ReutersneutralThe GuardianneutralHuman Rights Watch?

Top 8 Daily Spike Issues

Short-life stories — part of the same 100% conversation as the Top 12

01
Heavy fighting reported near Sake, threatening key supply route to Goma
Helps the oppositionGOV -4 · OPP +3HIGH escalation6% share · Day 3
Per AFP, the intensification of clashes around the strategic town of Sake raises fears that Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, could be further isolated, which would be a catastrophic military and humanitarian blow to the government.
AFP · Reuters · RFI · Actualite.cd
02
UNICEF warns of 'imminent famine' in displacement camps around Goma
Helps the oppositionGOV -3 · OPP +2MED escalation5% share · Day 2
According to a UNICEF press release widely covered by international media, acute malnutrition rates among children in IDP camps have reached emergency thresholds, creating immense pressure on the government and aid agencies and highlighting the severe human cost of the conflict.
UNICEF · Associated Press · The Guardian
03
US State Department calls on Rwanda to cease support for M23 and withdraw forces
Helps the governmentGOV +1 · OPP 0MED escalation3% share · Day 1
Reuters reports that a new, strongly-worded statement from the United States specifically naming Rwanda provides diplomatic ammunition for the DRC government, but also increases pressure on Kinshasa to engage in dialogue.
Reuters · US Department of State · AFP
04
Congolese Franc hits record low, triggering price hikes in Kinshasa markets
Helps the oppositionGOV -3 · OPP +2MED escalation2% share · Day 4
Radio Okapi reports that the currency's slide has had an immediate effect on the price of bread, fuel, and transport, bringing the government's economic management failures into sharp focus for the urban population.
Radio Okapi · Bloomberg
05
SADC confirms casualties among its forces in North Kivu
Helps the oppositionGOV -2 · OPP +1MED escalation2% share · Day 2
The SADC Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC) confirmed in a statement, reported by The EastAfrican, that several of its soldiers were killed in action, highlighting the intensity of the fighting and the costs of the regional intervention the government relies on.
The EastAfrican · SADC · Reuters
06
Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka presents revised budget to parliament
Helps the governmentGOV +1 · OPP -1LOW escalation1% share · Day 1
Per Agence Congolaise de Presse, the Prime Minister's budget presentation prioritizes defense spending, which provides a focus for the government's agenda but draws criticism from the opposition that social sectors and economic recovery are being neglected.
Agence Congolaise de Presse · Actualite.cd
07
Journalist arrested in Lubumbashi while covering protest
Helps the oppositionGOV -1 · OPP +1LOW escalation1% share · Day 1
Journaliste en Danger (JED) reports that the arrest of a local journalist covering a protest over power cuts is seen by press freedom groups as an act of intimidation, negatively impacting the government's human rights record.
Journaliste en Danger · RFI
08
DRC government signs new infrastructure deal for Kasai region
Helps the governmentGOV +2 · OPP 0LOW escalation1% share · Day 1
RTNC and Agence Congolaise de Presse report that according to the government's communication service, a new agreement to build roads in the Kasai region allows the ruling party to project an image of development and delivering on promises, countering the narrative of focusing only on the war in the east.
RTNC · Agence Congolaise de Presse

Agenda pushed by each side

Grounded from that day's reporting

Government

FARDC Repels M23 Attack, Defends Goma
A military spokesperson announced on state broadcaster RTNC that the army, with SADC and Wazalendo support, successfully repelled a major M23 assault on positions near Sake, reaffirming the government's resolve to defend every inch of national territory.
Issue #01
President Condemns Rwandan Aggression at Diplomatic Briefing
At a briefing for the diplomatic corps in Kinshasa, the Foreign Minister, on behalf of the President, presented what he termed 'new evidence' of the Rwandan army's direct involvement in the conflict and called for stronger international sanctions.
Issue #04
Government to Disburse Emergency Funds for IDPs
The Minister for Humanitarian Action announced the release of funds to assist newly displaced persons in North Kivu, stressing the government's commitment to alleviating the suffering caused by foreign-backed terrorism.
Issue #02

Opposition

Katumbi: Government's Failed Strategy is Costing Lives
In a press statement reported by Actualite.cd, opposition leader Moïse Katumbi blamed the recent military setbacks and the worsening humanitarian crisis on the 'incompetence and incoherence' of the Tshisekedi government's security policy.
Issue #01
Fayulu: People are Starving While the Regime Talks
Martin Fayulu posted on social media, as covered by Radio Okapi, that the soaring cost of food and the collapsing currency are the real threats to Congolese families, accusing the government of being distracted and failing to manage the economy.
Issue #03
Civil Society Decries Impunity for Militia Abuses
A coalition of human rights NGOs issued a report, highlighted by RFI, demanding the government hold allied Wazalendo militias accountable for documented abuses against civilians, arguing that impunity fuels the conflict.
Issue #12